经濟學人精选文章：Sinodependency 中国依赖指数

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    CHINA,anancientcivilisation,isstilli中国，这个古老的文明国度，依然还在经济体发育的青春期，其标志就是经济的极ChinamaynotbeamemberoftheG7groupofbi中国并不是G7的成员，没有加入那些庞大、富裕的民主国家的俱乐部。但它已经TradeisnottheonlymeasureofChina’seco中国经济影响世界的方式不止贸易一个。许多外国公司早在中国土地上建起工厂，Thisnewandimproved“Sinodependency”in这项新的升级版“中国依赖指数”在近年来比标普500指数表现抢眼得多。自从China’sprecociouseconomyhas,however,但是中国早熟的经济近来却由晴转阴。汇丰银行八月份对420家制造业公司加以AsharpslowdowninChineseinvestmentwas



Sinodependency
中国依賴指数

Teenage angst
少年之烦恼

The implications of China’s slowdown
中国经济减速的預兆

Aug 25th 2012 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

CHINA, an ancient civilisation, is still in its economic adolescence, a phase marked by growth spurts and mood swings. Other emerging economies endure this awkward period in relative obscurity, attracting only cursory attention. China has no such luck. It has become big before becoming rich, inviting scrutiny typically reserved for mature economies.

中國，这个古老的文明国度，依然还在经济体发育的青春期，其标志就是经济的極速增长和社会情緒的波动。其他经濟体往往能以比较低調沉默的姿态度过这段尴尬的时期，不会引起外界太多注意。中國就没有这么好的运气。它在变得富裕之前先变得庞大起来，引来外界事无巨細的審视，而这种关注度一般只是成熟经濟體的專利。

China may not be a member of the G7 group of big, rich democracies. But it is already a member of the so-called S5, or Systemic Five, a group of economies subject to extra IMF attention because of their “systemic” significance. China, according to the fund, is the most “central” trading power in the world, based on its extensive trade links to other economies that are themselves tightly interwoven. It is the biggest or second-biggest trading partner for 78 countries. Its appetite for imports, especially the base metals and oil that feed its vast industrial machine, flatters the exports of countries as far afield as Azerbaijan and Angola.

中国并不是G7的成员，沒有加入那些庞大、富裕的民主国家的俱乐部。但它已經是所谓S5成员，或者叫做系统性五国之一。這是因其“系统性”地位而受到IMF格外關注的五个国家。按照国際货币基金组织的说法，中国因为与其他经济体之间自发建立了广泛而紧密的贸易联系，所以在全球贸易中占据了“核心”的位置。它是78个国家的最大或者第二大贸易伙伴。它對进口的需求，特别为了哺育其庞大工業機器所产生的贱金属和原油需求，使无数国家欢欣鼓舞，即使远如阿塞拜疆和安哥拉。

Trade is not the only measure of China’s economic influence. Many foreign companies have set up shop inside the country, profiting from its market without having to export to it. To obtain a broader measure of multinational exposure to the Middle Kingdom, The Economist has prepared a stockmarket index made up of 135 S&P 500 companies, weighted by China’s reported share of their revenues. (For companies that report revenues only for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, we have assumed China’s share of regional revenues reflects its share of the region’s GDP.)

中国经济影响世界的方式不止贸易一个。许多外国公司早在中国土地上建起工厂，从而不用出口就可以在中国市场上赚取利润。為了更好的测量多个国家和“中央王国”的经济關系，《经济學人》准备了一种股市指数以供参考。数据采集自135家标普500公司，再用它们各自收益中来自中国的比重系数加权。（对于一些在公布收益明细时只把亚太地区算作一个整體来統计的公司，我們就假定中國市场收益在地区收益总额中的比例，相当于中国GDP在整个地區GDP總量中的比例。）

This new and improved “Sinodependency” index has massively outperformed the S&P 500 in recent years, climbing by almost 129% since the beginning of 2009, compared with the S&P 500’s gain of 57% (see chart 1). It has also performed far better than China’s own stockmarkets. Buying American firms exposed to China may be a better investment strategy than buying Chinese firms themselves. That is just as well, because foreign participation in China’s stockmarkets is still circumscribed.



这项新的升級版“中國依赖指数”在近年來比标普500指数表现抢眼得多。自从2009年建立以來，它上涨了129%；相比而言，标普500只漲了57%（見表一）。它比中国自己的股市表现也要更好。购買跟中国有经济联系的美国公司，似乎比起购买中国本土公司來，是更有战略眼光的投资行为。这么干没錯，因为外国资本想進入中国股市依然要受到諸多限制。

China’s precocious economy has, however, turned sullen and morose of late. The preliminary results of HSBC’s August survey of over 420 manufacturing firms, many of them private, showed orders falling and inventories backing up. The ratio of orders to inventories was at its worst since December 2008. This disappointment followed the announcement that house prices rose in 49 out of 70 cities last month, a revival deemed bad news as it might delay further monetary easing.

但是中國早熟的經济近来却由晴轉阴。汇丰银行八月份对420家制造業公司加以考察，其中许多都是私人企业，初步结果显示订單在減少，库存在反弹。订单数與库存量的比例，是自2008年12月以来最差的状况。緊随着这个坏消息而来的，就是一項声明，显示在上個月中，70座城市中49家住宅价格上漲。房价反弹一般被认为是坏消息，它可能影响到银根的进一步放松。

A sharp slowdown in Chinese investment was one of the risks examined by the IMF in a report this month on the systemic five. Ashvin Ahuja and Malhar Nabar of the fund have calculated the impact on China’s trading partners of a one-percentage-point slowdown in Chinese capital formation. In the second chart, we have extrapolated their results. Our baseline is the IMF’s 2012 growth forecasts for each country (made back in April, a happier time). The chart shows the effect on growth of a soft landing, which we define as a two-percentage-point slowdown in China’s investment growth. It also depicts a harder landing, which we define as a 3.9-point slowdown, the same as it endured in 2008.

开心青年

根據IMF关于系统性五国的一份报告顯示，中國投资的急剧放缓也是风險之一。货币基金的ashvin Ahuja 和Malhar Nabar统計了在中国资本集聚中如果有1%的减速，会对贸易伙伴产生什么影响。在第二份图表中，我們可以根据他们的数据做出推断。我们的基线是IMF对各個國家经济2012年增长率的预测（还是形勢较好的4月份做出的）。图表显示了经济软着陆产生的影响，我们把中国投资增长率2%左右的减少称为软着陸。它也顯示了硬着陸的可能，那是3.9%左右的减速，就像2008年經历的那样。

A hard landing would hobble South Korea and bring Taiwan’s growth to a shuddering halt. But growth in Brazil and Australia would hold up surprisingly well, perhaps because their currencies would fall, absorbing some of the shock. However, these estimates capture only the direct impact of a Chinese slowdown, as transmitted through its trade links. Messrs Ahuja and Nabar point out that stockmarkets around the world would also swoon. And some countries would be hit by indirect effects: Germany, for example, would suffer both a loss of exports to China and to countries that sell a lot to China. Adolescents have an uncanny ability to spoil things for everybody.

硬着陆会让韓国经济受创，并且让台湾的经濟增長踉蹌著走向停顿。但巴西和澳大利亚的增长率卻令人惊讶的不受影响，或許因为他们的货幣会贬值，吸收一部分震荡。但是，这些预测只涉及中国经濟减速通过贸易联系传递的直接影响。Messrs Ahuja和Nabar指出，全球股市都会感冒。而且有些国家会受到間接影响：比如說德国，不但对中国的出口会下降，那些对中国出口額很大的国家对德国商品的需求也会下降。青葱少年們總是有神奇的本事，把自己的事摊到所有人头上。