根據IMF关于系统性五国的一份报告顯示，中國投资的急剧放缓也是风險之一。货币基金的ashvin Ahuja 和Malhar Nabar统計了在中国资本集聚中如果有1%的减速，会对贸易伙伴产生什么影响。在第二份图表中，我們可以根据他们的数据做出推断。我们的基线是IMF对各個國家经济2012年增长率的预测（还是形勢较好的4月份做出的）。图表显示了经济软着陆产生的影响，我们把中国投资增长率2%左右的减少称为软着陸。它也顯示了硬着陸的可能，那是3.9%左右的减速，就像2008年經历的那样。
A hard landing would hobble South Korea and bring Taiwan’s growth to a shuddering halt. But growth in Brazil and Australia would hold up surprisingly well, perhaps because their currencies would fall, absorbing some of the shock. However, these estimates capture only the direct impact of a Chinese slowdown, as transmitted through its trade links. Messrs Ahuja and Nabar point out that stockmarkets around the world would also swoon. And some countries would be hit by indirect effects: Germany, for example, would suffer both a loss of exports to China and to countries that sell a lot to China. Adolescents have an uncanny ability to spoil things for everybody.
硬着陆会让韓国经济受创，并且让台湾的经濟增長踉蹌著走向停顿。但巴西和澳大利亚的增长率卻令人惊讶的不受影响，或許因为他们的货幣会贬值，吸收一部分震荡。但是，这些预测只涉及中国经濟减速通过贸易联系传递的直接影响。Messrs Ahuja和Nabar指出，全球股市都会感冒。而且有些国家会受到間接影响：比如說德国，不但对中国的出口会下降，那些对中国出口額很大的国家对德国商品的需求也会下降。青葱少年們總是有神奇的本事，把自己的事摊到所有人头上。
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发表于 2017-7-22 20:56:11